EUR/USD has recorded small gains in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1709, up 0.12% on the day. On the release front, Manufacturing PMIs in Germany and the eurozone were within expectations. In the U.S, the focus will be on job numbers, with the release of nonfarm payrolls and wage growth. Both indicators are expected to climb, with estimates of 189 thousand and 0.2%, respectively.
After a brief hiatus, the markets are again facing the nasty reality of a trade war between the U.S. and its major trading partners. On Thursday, the Trump administration made good on its threats and imposed stiff tariffs on the European Union, Mexico and Canada. The EU and Canada fired back quickly, saying they would retaliate with tariffs on U.S products. The U.S had granted all three trading partners a temporary extension, but cited insufficient progress on trade talks as the reason for the tariffs. There are renewed fears that these moves could trigger a global trade war.
The political drama which engulfed Italy this week may finally be over. The crisis almost resulted in another election after an inconclusive vote in March. President Sergio Matterella had vetoed the choice of the prime minister-elect for finance minister, stunning the political establishment and sending Italian stocks and bonds tumbling lower. In a dramatic breakthrough, the President has given his approval to a new choice for finance minister. This has paved the way for two euro-sceptic parties, the League North and Five Star Movement, to form a coalition government as soon as Friday.
Friday (June 1)
- 3:15 Spanish Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.9. Actual 53.4
- 3:45 Italian Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.0. Actual 52.7
- 3:50 French Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 55.1. Actual 54.4
- 3:55 German Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.8. Actual 56.9
- 4:00 Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 55.5. Actual 55.5
- Day 2 – G7 Meetings
- 8:30 US Average Hourly Earnings. Estimate 0.2%
- 8:30 US Nonfarm Employment Change. Estimate 189K
- 8:30 US Unemployment Rate. Estimate 3.9%
- 9:45 US Final Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.6
- 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 58.3
- 10:00 US Construction Spending. Estimate 0.8%
- 10:00 US ISM Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 78.1
- 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices. Estimate 78.1
- All Day – US Total Vehicle Sales. Estimate 17.0M
*All release times are DST
*Key events are in bold
EUR/USD for Friday, June 1, 2018
EUR/USD for June 1 at 6:55 DST
Open: 1.1694 High: 1.1718 Low: 1.1665 Close: 1.1710
EUR/USD has posted small losses in the Asian and European sessions
- 1.1613 is providing support
- 1.1718 was tested earlier in resistance and is a weak line
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.1613, 1.1448, 1.1312 and 1.1212
- Above: 1.1718, 1.1809 and 1.1915
- Current range: 1.1613 to 1.1718
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio continues to have a quiet week. Currently, long positions have a majority (55%), indicative of trader bias towards EUR/USD reversing directions and moving to higher ground.
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